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Security in the modern world: problems and tasks

Arkady G. Aseev

What does «security» mean? It is antagonistic to «danger». In our world no absolute security is possible. It is obvious that in the modern world there is danger always present in a certain form or at certain extent, potential or real.

To define level of danger and its assessment in science, there was idea of risk invented. Risk is understood as possibility of a certain untoward event, followed by various losses (e.g. death, physical trauma, property loss, getting less profit than planned).

Existence of «risk» as a definition is related to impossibility to predict future with 100% guarantee. Risk is related to future and inseparably bound to prediction and planning, and so with decision making (literally «risk» means «decision making» with the result unknown).

Risk takes place only in situations where decision making is necessary (if not so, it does not make sense to take a risk). In professional security systems a 10% risk is considered to be rather high. In ordinary life a 50% risk is called reckless [Russian word is formed from the English word «adventure» to define such risk level]. In literature one can find many definitions of a risk, e.g.:

  • probability of untoward outcome, including death;
  • uncertainty related to value of investments at the end of the period;
  • possible loss, caused by accidental untoward events;
  • danger of possible losses, caused by specifics of nature events and types of human activity;
  • Level of financial loss, represented as a) possibility not to reach the desired objective; b) uncertainty of anticipated result; c) subjective assessment of anticipated objective.

There exist assessments of individual and group risks. Mean probability of this or that untoward consequences per unit time is taken as quantitative measure. Group risk or collective risk is a sum of individual risks.

Thus less the risk of certain action, event, activity or inactivity is, the higher is security of the process, object, man, group of people or a state. We can give the following definition of security: Security is protected present and future condition for individual, group of individuals, processes or objects from any untoward influences.

One should remember that normal development of a man, group of people or any processes is possible only in secure conditions. Without required security there will be no development, or degradation processes will take place, ending in death.

Various indicators are applied to assess security. These assessments have random character. This is the reason why more problems has individual or a group, higher is probability of untoward consequences in future for individual, a group or the humankind.

There are the following conclusions:

  • risks for individuals in future cannot be predicted with any reasonable accuracy, because they depend on various assumptions, while many future events cannot even be supposed;
  • Unpredictability of changes in human activity is mainly determined by human nature itself, and there are no grounds to consider that it would be ever possible to create perfect models to predict human behavior in distant future.

Also there is a problem of quantity to quality transition in course of time, and thus entering the new level.

E.g. situation with quantity of the autos. While they were few, it was easy to drive them in the cities, including Moscow. Then as time has gone, quantity of the autos increased, and driving becomes more and more difficult. In Moscow one could often hear about «gridlock». Situation is the same with social contradictions, which is the cause of stress for people, inducing unmotivated aggression and not only unpredictable behavior.

Similar situation could be found everywhere. While quantity of negative is small, it is easier to solve a problem. With increase of the bulk of negative characteristics, previous solutions do no work, and one should look for new, earlier unknown. Just look at the increasing statistics of unlawful use of traumatic weapon by citizens in Russia, and fire weapon in the USA.

Crime is another social problem. Common and clear to everyone is situation when there are few law breakers in a country, they are condemned and imprisoned. Increase of crime rate causes more problems: prisons are overcrowded, and there are no places for criminals. Society has to look for solution: what earlier was easy now turns to a serious problem. In USA criminals are left at home arrest for non-serious crimes, and controlled with electronic bracelets, showing information of their location to the police. In our country president has suggested to pay penalty instead of imprisonment for non-serious economic crimes.

Longer humankind exists; more often it will face new problems, which did not exist before. There are symptoms of events accumulation. And no evidences that potential hazards decrease, not to speak of real ones.

That is the reason why we shall constantly face social problem of inability to provide necessary security level, even previously achieved, with current methods: population is increasing and contradictions are accumulated extremely fast. All the more so quantity of not only people, but new problems and hazards will increase with increase of technic and development of civilization. Problems will just increase and aggravate. We should perceive not only the form and content of perspective hazards, but get it philosophical understanding, the worldview.

For security assurance modern science creates different mathematic models, taking in consideration various factors of influence on the environment, their interactions and back actions. After many years of investigations in this direction no model was elaborated to take everything into account. All modes are approximations to reality. With this modern science is able to provide various calculations rather exactly. Very recent there was information in media that Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations would use supercomputer of one of Russian nuclear centers to calculate situations related to natural disasters.

But all this taken together does not provide complete security in any field of human life.

Let us look what is modern science. It is still divided in separate, slightly connected parts. For examples in physics: mechanics, thermodynamics, turbulence, and quant physics. Each part uses own theories and formulas.

Using definitions of quantum mechanics, we can review different existing sciences and their subdisciplines as quant levels. They are located as if layer by layer, without continuous and certain connectedness. There is but a specific feature: problems born at one level of science unpredictably spread also to other layers, and time of consequences of these problems is similar to latent period of disease in infected organism.

You know that before man entered cosmic space, atmosphere of our planet was considered homogenous. And only from the orbit cosmonauts saw that atmosphere has a structure, consisting of many levels, and in each of them at certain altitudes various independent events may pass.

To summarize, not only outer world and certain its phenomena are quantized, but science as a whole is quantized. And development of science not only increases quantity of conditions and processes, available for us nowadays, but increasingly opens up opportunities of transition to various unfavorable situations, conditions, circumstances, often without our will.

Physics describes mostly material world. A man is a part of biosphere and cannot exist and moreover develop outside it. Biology is a science, which describes life. It differs from physics even more than above mentioned subdisciplines. When we pretend to rule natural processes at physical layers, poorly aware of characteristics and possibilities of biosphere, we induce transitions in it, which could be called quantum transitions and these are unpredictable ones. In such situations assessing untoward consequences and risks it is important to come not from expected values, but from the amplitude of probability of their distribution; when in the worst cases we can simultaneously review superposition of untoward outcomes with probability of most likely one… And for many people it is not only unclear, but also impossible, e.g. in the field of indemnity insurance.

Let’s come back to security questions and review nuclear energetics. At the modern stage there are made all efforts to provide it with technical possibilities, to calculate all probable accident scenarios. All efforts to calculate and to provide are taken, but disasters still take place. Just remember Chernobyl disaster, Three Mile Island, Fukushima. And accidents always happen in such chains of event, which were not even supposed before during accident analysis. Very similar to stroke of a lightning. It is evident, where it will strike (in case of lonely high tree or metallic spike, higher than other buildings). The pass of a lightning cannot be predicted, calculated, modeled. Each time its pass is unique, and as usual it is very complicated. Situation with car accidents is similar: they are similar in accident results, but not in accident processes.

Human factor is at a certain extent always involved in the accidents at technical sites, so it should be investigated by another science — psychology. Human factor is engaged even though because technical sites are created, managed and maintained by people.

Though people try to consider all accident and hazard probabilities, but due to a huge quantity of root causes and possible ways of events progression, complete consideration would never be possible. Accidents, similar to lightning strokes, will never follow linear, continuous ways in frames of any engineer or scientific concept. This is because there is a huge quantity of quantum levels in the outer world (which is not contradictory to fundamental principles and laws of organization and existence of matter and life). And combinations of these are really endless.

In quantum physics certain energy is required for particle transition from one quantum level to another, after it is obtained, transition happens instantly, without intermediate sate. In our case transitions in quantum levels of the outer world pass also in an instant jump after achieving of certain conditions. These jumps could be seen, but the pass — similar to a lightning — cannot be foreseen. Nowadays science has not even started investigation of these laws and principles.

The most difficult part of security provision task is a man himself, his psychology and behavior. These questions were not investigated by anyone yet in such a light. Accident analysis in Three Mile Island and Chernobyl has demonstrated that in the first case accident was caused by operator’s mistakes, which were overloaded with information; in second case — by excessive safety concern.

It should be noted that modern science was born from metaphysics and human wish to cognize concept of the Creator through His creations, and not only through traditions, messages (of the prophets) and testaments. Seems that we have to return if not to metaphysics, than to a sort of united science in absolute sense, in order to observe and consider simultaneously physical, biological, social and cognitive processes at the modern level of work with widest databases for all valuable aspects; and instead of safety actualize the problem of salvation, not from orthodox science viewpoint which is seeking for the truth and exact knowledge, but coming back to investigation of cognizable, but yet not completely cognized processes and phenomena.

Modern worldview system — Noocosmology — could be a valuable source of information for safety provision in any sphere of human life. Only Noocosmology allows receipt and recording of such data via work of operator with the channel, which no other science is able to provide. You should not consider channel operators as biblical prophets, but information obtained by them might be no less useful than in the ancient times, when prophets saved their nations from death and destruction. Modern scientific methods of risk assessments and combination of approaches might provide significantly higher security level than we have with currently used methods. Though it is important to understand that absolute security is not generally possible. That should happen, as it was planned by the Highest Intelligence for the Universe development, will inevitably happen despite all measures of security provision. And even channel operators will not be allowed to obtain this information.

This article was written for the information and analytical Digest «Security XXI».

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